Emerging Markets Winners and Losers in Manufacturing
What effect will new manufacturing technologies like 3-dimensional (3D) printing have on emerging markets? The latest research by Senior Fellow Bryane Michael finds that emerging markets like India will probably see a net positive effect. China will almost certainly lose out during the next wave of manufacturing. It is likely that upper-income, OECD countries – particularly Germany, the U.S., and Japan – will continue producing high-value goods. Because these economies have a strong skilled labor and service-based orientation, they will be able to respond quickly to additive manufacturing. Additive manufacturing, meaning, printing products, will disrupt the old, low-wage, supply-chain-driven approach to cost competition and economic development. Roughly one third of all manufacturing subsectors will undergo radical change as a result of additive manufacturing.
Key findings include:
China, Korea and Indonesia will see large-scale shrinkages in their manufacturing bases as new manufacturing techniques (notably 3D printing) take hold,
Brazil, Russia and the Philippines will add millions of jobs if they take advantage of new opportunities posed by New Manufacturing,
Demand for plastics – stemming from demand for 3D printing – should go up by about 30%-40%, providing an attractive investment in a range of companies from developed country companies like Berry Plastics Group to emerging market companies like National Plastic Technologies.
3-D printing could reshape the way companies patent and protect the patents, and
North America, based on its workforce training, seems extremely unlikely to lead in manufacturing in the upcoming years.
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