What effect will new manufacturing technologies like 3-dimensional (3D) printing have on emerging markets? The latest research by Senior Fellow Bryane Michael finds that emerging markets like India will probably see a net positive effect. China will almost certainly lose out during the next wave of manufacturing. It is likely that upper-income, OECD countries – particularly Germany, the U.S., and Japan – will continue producing high-value goods. Because these economies have a strong skilled labor and service-based orientation, they will be able to respond quickly to additive manufacturing. Additive manufacturing, meaning, printing products, will disrupt the old, low-wage, supply-chain-driven approach to cost competition and economic development. Roughly one third of all manufacturing subsectors will undergo radical change as a result of additive manufacturing.
Key findings include:
- China, Korea and Indonesia will see large-scale shrinkages in their manufacturing bases as new manufacturing techniques (notably 3D printing) take hold,
- Brazil, Russia and the Philippines will add millions of jobs if they take advantage of new opportunities posed by New Manufacturing,
- Demand for plastics – stemming from demand for 3D printing – should go up by about 30%-40%, providing an attractive investment in a range of companies from developed country companies like Berry Plastics Group to emerging market companies like National Plastic Technologies.
- 3-D printing could reshape the way companies patent and protect the patents, and
- North America, based on its workforce training, seems extremely unlikely to lead in manufacturing in the upcoming years.
Download Emerging Markets Winners and Losers in Manufacturing in English or Russian.
