Latest Research

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Playing the Shadowy World of Emerging Market Shadow Banking

Playing the Shadowy World of Emerging Market Shadow Banking

While regulators around the world look to fight shadow banking, many lenders can profit from it. In our recent report, Playing the Shadowy World of Emerging Market Shadow Banking, IEMS Senior Research Fellow Dr. Bryane Michaeldescribes how family and institutional lenders can take advantage of shadow banking opportunities in emerging markets. Read more

Market Attractiveness Index for FDI: Different entry modes

Market Attractiveness Index for FDI: Different entry modes

What is driving the move towards one mode of entry over another? For the most part, country-specific attributes create conditions that make one entry mode more preferred. However, up until this point, we have had little consolidated data on the “appropriate” entry mode for a specific country. The author, former IEMS Senior Research Fellow Dr. Nan Zhou, tries to fill this gap through the development of two national level indexes: Read more

Differentiating for Success: Securing top talent in the BRICs

Differentiating for Success: Securing top talent in the BRICs

If companies are to be more successful in their approach to recruiting and retaining talented employees in emerging markets they need to understand what professionals value from them as employers, by country and by profession. A new IEMSjoint project with Ernst & Young “Differentiating for success: securing top talent in the BRICs,” launched today surveys 1,109 professionals in the BRICs – Brazil, Russia, India and China – and reveals the drivers of satisfaction, engagement and retention for each market.  Across the BRICs, the following drivers are outlined:  Brazil: Promote a high energy and socially oriented culture Russia: Offer individuals career growth and positive work... Read more

Money Left on the Table: Why some emerging stock markets sell at a discount?

Money Left on the Table: Why some emerging stock markets sell at a discount?

Why do some emerging stock markets trade at vastly different valuation levels?  For example, a dollar of earnings from India’s listed companies today are valued at $19, while a dollar of earnings from Russian public companies are only valued at $7.  The new research examines a variety of factors impacting valuations.  Emerging economies plagued with relatively low stock market valuations pay a steep price.  For example, if Russian stocks were equal in relative valuation to the emerging market average, it would add approximately $400 billion to its current stock market capitalization. Some of the most important findings of the research include:... Read more

Evaluating Emerging Markets in the Post-Crisis Period: A new methodology

Evaluating Emerging Markets in the Post-Crisis Period: A new methodology

The 2008-2009 global recession and ongoing financial crisis has been a transformative epoch.  The conventional wisdom is that while the developed nations have clearly come out of the crisis significantly weakened both economically and financially, the emerging markets have sailed through the crisis with little collateral damage.  The author finds this is not necessarily the case and develops a new research methodology to evaluate emerging economies in the post –crisis period. The paper lists the five economic drivers that will differentiate emerging market winners from losers.  These are: Technological adaptability – There is early evidence that the “digital divide” between developed... Read more

The Growth Elixir: Excaping the Middle-Income Trap in Emerging Markets

The Growth Elixir: Excaping the Middle-Income Trap in Emerging Markets

There are few places in the world where quality of life was not better in 2010 than in 1960, although certain regions have shown incredible success and others have stagnated. Growth paths have not been self-sustaining in many countries, with plateau effects after attaining certain thresholds of per capita income. This phenomenon has been observed in nearly every region of the world and at every income level. Researchers from the World Bank have dubbed this problem of fading growth “the middle-income trap.” With the bulk of emerging markets now approaching middle-income status, and given the reality of slower growth for... Read more

The Evolving Importance of Banks and Markets in the Emerging World: Which financial structure is best for the rapid growth markets?

The Evolving Importance of Banks and Markets in the Emerging World: Which financial structure is best for the rapid growth markets?

Perhaps the most pressing and critical issue currently facing the emerging economies is the continued development of their financial sectors.  Unfortunately, many of them currently lack the financial sector infrastructure (both physical and intellectual) to take their economies to the next stage of sustained economic development.  New research examines the level of financial development among 100 emerging markets in recent years.  Some of the key findings in the report include:    Among the RGMs, the average stock market capitalization ratio (stock market value over GDP) rose from 35% in 2000 to 62% by year-end 2012. Sub-Saharan Africa has the least developed equity markets. ... Read more

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Index Reports

At its core, soft power rests on the ability to shape the preferences of others. If one is able to get people to do what one wants, there is no need to use either “carrots” or “sticks.” The ability of a nation to influence others tends to be associated with intangible assets such as an attractive personality, culture, political values and institutions and policies that...
The 2012 Emerging Market Index covers 112 countries, placing them into four distinct stages of development based on their score from a weighted average of five primary components that comprise a total of 15 variables. The four stages of development, starting from bottom to top, are: Dormant, Early Stage Emerging, Intermediate Stage Emerging, and Advanced Stage Emerging. 
The SKOLKOVO Emerging Market Index is comprised of a weighted average of 15 variables, under five primary components (macroeconomic performance, macroeconomic conditions, health & human capital, economic & political freedom, and market size). The 113 developing countries in the study are then ranked under four stages of emergence. “Advanced stage emerging” economies top the list and generally have many of...

Most Popular Research

30/09/2010, 10:32

According to the World Bank’s “$2-$13 per day” expenditure standard, the growth in the emerging market middle class has been enormous the past two decades.  Between 1990 and 2005, the total almost doubled, from 1.4 billion to 2.6 billion, rising from one-third of the developing world’s population to one-half. 

However, using a much higher hurdle in defining its “global”...

10/05/2010, 10:46

In our new research we analyzed the automotive industries in today’s developing nations. The motorization of the emerging markets is expected to increase the growth rate in annual auto sales from the 2.7 percent experienced over the past decade to an average of 4.6 percent over the next twenty years. Using the latest demographic and economic data available,...

28/08/2009, 11:22

In this emerging market brief, we conclude that the financial crisis, which resulted in tighter credit and slowed down overall investment activity worldwide, has been the driving force behind the falling FDI into emerging markets, including into both Russia and China. The decline of FDI inflows into China can be attributed to three factors. First, tight credit caused by the...

28/10/2011, 09:32

The continued slow recovery of the private sector worldwide in the wake of the global financial crisis has led to high unemployment rates and high levels of discontent. Given the problems faced by the private sector in emerging markets, how have governments made it easier or harder to do business since the financial crisis hit?  Put another way, how much...

10/06/2009, 11:24

This study examined 92 cases of Chinese and 55 cases of Russian transnational companies. 6 primary challenges were isolated as being faced by these companies in the new economic conditions, complete with suggestions of how to deal with these challenges efficiently. The report emphasized questions that were characteristic of the global expansion of TNCs from developing countries, and analyzed...

Commentary

18/04/2014, 11:17

Presentation by Christopher A. Hartwell at the XI International Scientific and Practical Conference on Economic Development, held in Ekaterinburg on April 18, 2014.

Christopher Hartwell appeared at the XI International Scientific and Practical Conference on Economic Development in the Modern World: “Sustainable development of Russian regions: from the Customs Union to Eurasian Union,” hosted by the Graduate School of...

11/04/2014, 06:38

Presentation by Christopher A. Hartwell at the Gaidar Readings in Penza, April 11, 2014.

Christopher Hartwell spoke at the Gaidar Readings in Penza on April 11, 2014, on the topic of “Russian Regions as a Laboratory for Innovation.” Exploring international cases of how sub-national entities...

09/04/2014, 06:13

Commentary by Christopher A. Hartwell originally published in World Monitor.

In February, the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) surprisedthe markets with an announcement of a de facto devaluation ofRead more...

20/03/2014, 10:13
Commentary by Christopher A. Hartwell originally published March 20, 2014 in Russia Direct.

The Ukraine crisis might slow down the pace of Eurasian integration and raise the stakes for greater integration with Asian partners such as China.

Read more...